These Days of Lockdown in Shanghai
“Uncertainty”
People everywhere seek stability, but the world is full of uncertainty.
The outbreak in Shanghai seemed to come suddenly, with the lockdown feeling almost abrupt. Every day brought new infections, and the planned lifting of restrictions on the 5th has been postponed indefinitely as of today, the 8th. Many people have run out of stockpiled food, or never even had any to begin with. Social delivery services like couriers and takeout are struggling to keep up, and the community management in residential areas hasn’t been able to effectively organize resources. The vast city of Shanghai seems to be in chaos.
In this uncertain environment, the most important things are resilience and the ability to be antifragile.
“Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors; and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.”
Firstly, I believe that a crucial component of antifragility is mindset. A positive and optimistic outlook is extremely important. As Nietzsche said, and as mentioned in Antifragile: “That which does not kill us makes us stronger.”
During this fight against the pandemic, many people are complaining and criticizing, saying that this is not working and that is chaotic. But those who take responsibility have already put themselves on the front lines, analyzing and solving problems.
The root cause of failure in the face of most difficulties is the loss of one’s will and the collapse of one’s mindset.
Secondly, I believe it’s important to have a sense of crisis.
For example, some families stockpile a considerable amount of food. This stockpiling isn’t about panic buying; it’s about measured preparation. If it’s said that the lockdown will be lifted on the 5th, what will you do if it isn’t? Stockpiling more necessities is a good idea, just in case. Stock up on essential non-perishables like rice, oil, salt, and eggs.
I firmly believe in planning for the worst-case scenario.
In work, if your team tells you a project will be completed by the 10th, you should have your own expectations. What if it’s not completed by the 10th? Should you allocate buffer time or accelerate progress beforehand?
In these years of the COVID-19 pandemic, many industries and companies have been unable to survive and have closed down, while New Oriental has managed to stay afloat. Yu Minhong prepared for this from day one.
Texas Hold’em poker is actually good practice for this. It’s all about probabilities. Gambling occasionally is fine, but constantly going all-in will only lead to losses.
Uncertainty is actually the norm. Multiple factors influence how things develop; it’s a matter of probabilities. 100% certainty is extremely difficult to achieve. What we need to learn is how to survive and thrive under uncertainty and unpredictability. This is a fundamental skill.
I recommend reading Antifragile to gain a deeper understanding of this ability.